Gordon's Dog Blog

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Daytona Beach 02/08 Matinee
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Tackling Handicapping Puzzles at Southland on Monday

Southland has been an excellent track for me over the years. They have a nice variety of races there, and a lot of differences from course to course and from grade to grade. It's a track that will really pay you back if you take the time to study things and understand how racing works in Arkansas.

Let's examine a few of the best races on the Monday evening card at Southland.

The first race tonight is an interesting handicap. I'll be supporting #8, Ric C. This greyhound has a good box, good times, a good grade average and a good post record. Good isn't "best" but in this case, good may be good enough! I think the crowd will put some money on #2, #4 and #6, and if they spread it around enough, that will make my #8 a good value play.

I'm going after a relative longshot in the 4th race. On the rail, #1, Gotta Shortcut, has had some bad luck on the inside, and I don't think it's the greyhound's fault. Tonight Gotta Shortcut has an advantage when #2 and #3 both run strongly to the outside. Gotta Shortcut should stay clear on the rail. Expect some competition from the outside dogs, #8 and #9. Those are good boxes, but I'm hoping my wide runners complicate things on the corner for those outside greyhounds. It's a longshot, but if it works out it should be a good payday!

You'll find a 3/16ths-mile race in the 5th on Monday night that is a real corker to handicap. I'm betting that the crowd will overplay the #2 and the #5 dogs. The #2 because of that last win, and the #5 because of the recent higher-grade races. But #4, Pg Bad News, should be the best value. This runner actually has a better grade average than #5 by quite a bit, but you won't know that by looking at the program. The key, though, is that #4 has a real nice break advantage over #3, and the #5 dog tends to run a little wide. On paper, at least, that should leave Pg Bad News with running room from that #4 post position.

I'm not quite sure if #1, Rooster Tail, will give me the odds I want in the 7th race. This greyhound is a grade dropper in a strong box, and the crowd usually likes that. But Rooster Tail doesn't have much showing in recent lines that would really light up the crowd. I'm thinking maybe they will look elsewhere and spread some money around this field. If they give me anything like 2-1 on my #1, I'll be happy. Rooster Tail has the best grade average in the field and good time averages. While his post record is poor, almost all of it came at much higher grades. I'll give this dog a shot and see what I get.

The crowd may make a mistake or two in the 11th race. You have two dogs moving up in grade after wins, #3 and #6. Dogs moving up are almost always underlays. And where the crowd bets too much on one or two runners, that means the rest of the field gains an advantage. I'll try to exploit that using #1, Oshkosh Lewellen. This greyhound has a break advantage over the #2 runner, and is moving down in grade. Add in good times and some late speed and I'm happy to play on Oshkosh Lewellen.

My final play of the night will come in the 16th race. This is a very tough handicap, as are many grade AA races. Many dogs have good points that stand out, but none are really good enough to lock in one dog in the crowd's mind. I hope not, at least! I'll be backing #6, Ct Buck Wild. This greyhound has the best acceleration from the break to the 1/8th call. There are a couple of slow breakers on the rail, and I'm hoping that will make room midtrack for my #6 greyhound. Ct Buck Wild has the best adjusted time average on the Stat Attack by quite a margin, as well as the best grade average.

Those are my ideas for the Monday night card at Southland. Premium Members are invited to click on their free Stat Attack and Stat Force for this card and join in on the action. The card features a great variety of races and plenty of handicapping head-scratchers that you should enjoy. See you all at Southland!

Gordon Waite

Handicapping Results from the Southland Monday Night Card

The Monday night card started with a nice win at Southland in the 1st race. My key was the #8 dog, Ric C. The crowd sent Ric C to post at 2-1 odds, a weak favorite. But he came through in a big way. Ric C broke 4th and moved up to 3rd at the turn. He held there for most of the race but turned on the big kick on the stretch, passing runners and stretching it out for a nice 4.5-length victory. This win paid $6.00 on top, but the reward came in the Trifecta, which paid $464.80 on the $2 base. The Superfecta was $224.75. All in all, a great way to start a night of racing!

My emotional edge was dulled a bit in the 4th race, when Gotta Shortcut broke 7th, then promptly dropped into 9th place for the rest of the race. At 7.3-1 odds, this was a longshot, but I expected better from any greyhound starting with the #1 post advantage.

In the 5th race, Pg Bad News could only manage a slightly better result, finishing in 6th place by 5.5 lengths. This greyhound went to work at 3.7-1 odds, but was in trouble by the turn. At least Pg Bad News showed a bit of late effort.

The odds on Rooster Tail didn't make any difference in the 7th, when he broke 4th and stayed in 4th all the way around the track. To be fair, Rooster Tail took a hit on the turn and was only five lengths back, but I had hoped for better. By the way, the odds were 2.3-1, which would have been fine had he won.

I guess that first race was the best I'm going to see tonight, as Oshkosh Lewellen could only manage a 7th-place finish in the 11th race. this greyhound went off at 3-1 odds from the coveted #1 box, but managed to get hit running on the rail at the turn and never recovering.

Not so fast, though, as there was one race left! My #6 key, Ct Buck Wild, saved the evening for me! While going off as a strong favorite at 1.1-1, Ct Buck Wild didn't disappoint me. After breaking 2nd from the box, Ct Buck Wild turned on the magic, leading by the turn and moving away from a wonderful 3.5-length victory. Being such a strong favorite caused the payoffs to be smallish numbers. The win payoff was $4.20, but the Exacta was a decent $29.10. The Trifecta came in at $53.60 and the Superfecta was $14.25.

So I ended up with two wins as bookends on four pitiful handicaps! So it goes in the handicapping business. Hitting 33% isn't anything to be ashamed of, and the payoffs from that 1st race were enough to make the whole night work out just fine. I hope you all had some fun at the races, and cashed some nice tickets of your own!

See you on Tuesday night at Birmingham...

Gordon