Gordon's Dog Blog

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Stat Attack ---Stat Force ---RG Tip Sheet

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Great Greyhound Handicapping at Gulf Greyhound Park

Time is always an interesting handicapping factor. It's easily the single most important factor used to predict the outcome of greyhound races. Our Stat Attack offers the straight variant-adjusted time average for each dog, but our Stat Force offers even more. There you will find the variant-adjusted time for recent races only, for troubled races, for clean races, but post position and by grade. So no matter what handicapping situation you find yourself in, there's a "time" stat that can help.

Let's take a look at the Saturday night greyhound racing card at Gulf Greyhound Park...

Tonight's 1st race offers an obvious key. #1, Santa Fe Enough, is in the strongest post position, winning 22.61% of all races. Santa Fe Enough also has the best adjusted time and the best raw time average by a whopping .55 seconds. That's about 8 lengths advantage! Throw in the best 1/8th-call average and there's not much left that this greyhound doesn't dominate.

In the 5th race, I'm hoping for some long odds on #2, Algoa Rage. This greyhound isn't even close to the best times here, but I think Algoa Rage will have an advantage. The #1 greyhound is a fast breaker that fades. On top of that, the #1 runs wide. My scenario is for #2, Algoa Rage, to break nearly dead last but go right to the rail behind #1. If that #1 runner blows the turn or goes wide, Algoa Rage will have a huge benefit accelerating on the rail, swinging inside all the other runners, and then turning on that big late speed that shows up on the Stat Attack. If it comes off like this, it should be an outstanding payday.

Here's another no-brainer in the 7th, a Maiden contest. At this grade the rail is red hot, winning over 22% of the time. Tonight that incredible rail post position is launching #1, Ahk Daddys Girl, on her way. This greyhound has the best adjusted time by well over two lengths. She also has the best break in the field. This greyhound isn't likely to offer big odds, but this is a high-probability play. Just keep your keys and part wheels narrow, and hit them hard and often!

There is an interesting matchup in the 8th race between #2, Cr Silly Boy and #1, Hey Hotshot. The #2 has slightly better time averages, and a slightly better post position. But Hey Hotshot has a better post record, and a considerably better grade average. I'm hoping the crowd goes with the #2 because of the time averages, making Hey Hotshot the better value play tonight.

I'm going totally contrarian in tonight's 10th race a grade A contest on the 5/16ths-mile course. The crowd is going to be all over #4, Miss Katara, betting like there's no tomorrow. This greyhound is making a run straight up the grade ladder, with four wins in a row, from Maiden through J, C and B. Now at grade A, the crowd will expect this greyhound can do it again, and wager accordingly. Now Miss Katara MIGHT win again, but what would you gain by betting on her? You'll get a tiny win payoff and most likely a tiny trifecta. The trick in this race is to find somebody who can win if the #4 can't. Almost any other winner will pay off big time, and to be honest, it's more likely that #4 will lose rather than win here, given that AA greyhound right next to her in the #6 box.

The greyhound that is most likely to do the job for me is #1, Algoa Sammysue. The crowd is going to be looking at those last seven past performance lines in the program, and they're not going to be seeing this greyhound's AA lines just beyond that horizon. They are also not going to see that Algoa Sammysue won a grade A race from this same #1 post position back on March 19. Algoa Sammysue went box to wire in that race, at 4.1-1 odds. I expect the odds might be even better on Saturday night!

In my final race of the night, the grade B 12th contest, I'm looking for a good value play again. I'm thinking that I can get some good odds on #3, Gable Duey. This greyhound has good time averages, but the best point is that the adjacent #4 greyhound breaks well and runs wide. This might open things up for my #3, who is in a strong post position tonight.

That's it for the Saturday night card at Gulf Greyhound Park. Premium Members should print out their free Stat Attack, Stat Force, and Tip Sheet, and have some fun handicapping these greyhounds. See you at the track!

Gordon Waite

Gulf Greyhound Handicapping Results

I pointed out that the 1st race had an obvious key in Santa Fe Enough. Sure enough, this runner went off at 0.7-1 odds and came up a winner. Santa Fe Enough broke 3rd on the rail, was 2nd at the turn and had the lead by the stretch call. This greyhound finished two lengths in front, and paid $3.40 for the win. The Exacta paid $13.20, and the Trifecta a slim $47.60. That's how strong favorites work!

In tonight's 5th race my pick, Algoa Rage, ended up in 2nd place, 3.5 lengths back. This runner broke 6th and moved up nicely through the race, but ran out of time and track at the finish. At 5.2-1 odds, though, this greyhound was an excellent value play in this field.

I scored yet another 2nd-place finish in the 7th race when Ahk Daddys Girl finished 9.5 lengths behind the winner. My greyhound went off at 3.5-1 odds and was 2nd at every call. I can't feel bad, as my runner did beat the crowd favorite.

I picked a longshot in the 8th, Hey Hotshot, and this runner ended up in 4th place. That sounds worse than it was, as Hey Hotshot was only two lengths behind the winner. And at 7.1-1 odds, this greyhound was, indeed, a good value play. Especially considering that Hey Hotshot ran into trouble on the turn.

My predictions for the 10th race were partially correct. The #4 greyhound did go off as the crowd favorite, and she didn't win the race. Unfortunately the greyhound I hoped would win could only manage a 4th-place finish, nine lengths behind the winner. Algoa Sammysue broke 1st, but was 3rd by the turn. She went off at 6.1-1 odds.

Yet another longshot pick came up empty in the 12th race. Gable Duey went off at 6.3-1 odds, broke 3rd, but fell back to 7th on the turn after some bumping. My key did fight back to finish 5th, six lengths behind the winner.

So it wasn't the best night tonight... One winner and a skinny one at that. But there's always tomorrow! See you next time at the track...