What About Your 2nd and 3rd Picks?
A few days ago I wrote a Blog about improving my ROI by not playing on my top selection when my pick is the same dog as the crowd favorite. I received an email from P.G. in Milwaukee, asking, "Just read your article about not betting your top pick when he / she is the favorite. My question is, What about your 2nd and 3rd pick in this regard? ... Just wondering what the profit would be. Loved the article cause I'm always looking for "Value" in my wagering."
That's a great question, so I hit the computer to find out the answer. I ran out the information at several tracks, so here is the situation where my top pick matches the crowd, so I want to look at using my 2nd or 3rd picks instead:
2nd pick hits 17.77%, ROI is +7.71%
3rd pick hits 13.92%, ROI is -4.39%
2nd pick hits 19.21%, ROI is +15.26%
3rd pick hits 11.96%, ROI is -19.87%
2nd pick hits 16.27%, ROI is +16.37%
3rd pick hits 14.86%, ROI is +25.94%
2nd pick hits 17.35%, ROI is +0.84
3rd pick hits 12.86%, ROI is -14.55%
2nd pick hits 16.51%, ROI is -3.39%
3rd pick hits 13.15%, ROI is -10.00%
2nd pick hits 16.77%, ROI is +5.01%
3rd pick hits 10.54%, ROI is -33.33%
You can see the general pattern here. When my top selection matches the crowd, I can play my 2nd pick and make a profit at five out of six tracks. In a couple of cases, the profits are pretty juicy!
But there is only one track of the six where I can play my 3rd pick and still get a positive ROI.
Good luck at the races this weekend!